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Economic forecasts by the Federal Government’s Expert Group – Autumn 2015
The sharp rise in the value of the Swiss franc from mid-January put a significant brake on the Swiss economy during the first half of 2015. Despite a slight easing in the exchange rate situation over the last few weeks the Expert Group continues to anticipate that the economy will remain very subdued in the second half of the year and is likely to only start to strengthen again during the course of 2016. A key prerequisite for an improvement in the economic situation is that the global economy remains on an upward course and, in particular, that the Euro zone is able to continue its recovery. Overall growth in GDP for 2015 is expected to be 0.9% (June forecast: +0.8%) with a moderate acceleration to 1.5% for 2016 (June forecast: +1.6%). In view of this rather restrained pace of economic activity the expected average annual unemployment rate of 3.3% in 2015 is likely to rise to 3.6% in 2016.
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