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Economic forecasts from the Federal Government’s Expert Group – Spring 2015.
Since the decision of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) taken on 15 January to abolish the exchange rate floor of 1.20 franc to 1 euro and the subsequent appreciation of the Swiss franc, the economic indicators for Switzerland have worsened. Nevertheless, although the appreciation of the Swiss currency will have a detrimental impact on the competitiveness of Swiss companies, the brighter economic prospects for Europe and the strengthening upturn in the USA should alleviate these negative effects.
Seen from the today’s viewpoint Switzerland may experience a temporary economic slowdown. However, in the current environment there are no signs of any sharp downturn – with a marked fall in economic activity and sharp rise in unemployment. Consequently, growth in GDP for 2015 and 2016 is expected to be +0.9% and +1.8% respectively, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate. Although the economy will experience a moderate general slowdown, certain sectors or individual companies are currently faced with severe competitive pressures.
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