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Economic forecasts from the Federal Government’s Expert Group – Autumn 2014
As a result of the continuing fragility of the global environment, in particular the faltering recovery in the Euro region, the Swiss economy has lost some of its momentum since the beginning of 2014. With respect to the latest signals of lower activity in the Swiss economy, the Expert Group assumes that this evolution should be only temporary and that the pace of the economy is likely to gradually pick up again. However, since the impetus from both domestic demand and exports is slightly weaker than had been previously anticipated, the growth forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are somewhat lower compared to the last forecast (dated June 2014). The Expert Group now projects growth in GDP of 1.8% (previously 2.0%) for the current year, accelerating to 2.4% (previously 2.6%) for 2015. In view of the slowdown in the economic recovery the reduction in unemployment is likely to be delayed and is only expected to start falling during the course of 2015. In light of the dampened short-term economic outlook for the Euro region, including Germany, the conditions deteriorated compared to the last forecasts in June. Although the economic projections for Switzerland are still quite appealing, the downside risks noticeable increased during the last few months.
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