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Potential output and long-term scenarios

Potential output and the output gap are macroeconomic variables that cannot be observed directly and must therefore be estimated using econometric methods.

Based on the European Commission's methodology, SECO calculates the potential output and the output gap for the years ahead, providing the basis for the long-term GDP scenarios.

SECO also publishes a second set of estimates covering the potential output and the output gap in the past.

Potential output and output gap in the coming years

Based on the European Commission's methodology.

Machine-readable format

Long-term GDP growth scenarios

The long-term scenarios illustrate future GDP trends under different assumptions regarding the working population and labour productivity.

Machine-readable format

Potential output and output gap in the past

Quarterly results based on the aggregation of several methods.

Machine-readable format

Methodology

Further information

Publication schedule

Relevant topics

Economic forecasts

The Federal Government Expert Group on Business Cycles updates its forecasts on a quarterly basis.

Gross domestic product

SECO publishes Switzerland’s quarterly national accounts approximately 60 days after the end of the quarter.

GDP flash

Around 45 days after the end of the quarter, SECO publishes an experimental flash estimate of GDP growth.

Consumer sentiment

The survey captures early indications of economic sentiment among Swiss households.

Index of weekly economic activity

Experimental high-frequency index tracking the development of the Swiss economy.

Publications on the economic situation

«Konjunkturtendenzen» / «Tendances conjoncturelles» provide an overview of the domestic and international economic situation and current economic forecasts.

Contact

State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO
Economic Policy Directorate / Short Term Economic Analyses
Felicitas Kemeny
Holzikofenweg 36
3003 Bern