Less confidence in the economic outlook
Bern, 06.08.2015 - Swiss consumer sentiment (average of four indices*) in July 2015** fall compared with the figure in April. There was a decline in the assessment of future economic development as well as of the trend in the unemployment figures.
The Swiss consumer sentiment index reduced between April and July 2015 from -6 to -19 points. All four questions which are included in the calculation contributed towards the fall. Consumer expectations with regard to future economic development showed a significant change (−8 points in April, −25 points in July) and unemployment is anticipated to continue rising (+51 points in April, +65 points in July). Domestic households were more negative about the assessment of their future financial situation (+5 points in April, -4 points in July). Consumers were also less positive in July (+18 points) about their savings possibilities over the next 12 months compared to April (+31 points).
In the previous two surveys (April and January) the sub-indices on price trends reached historic minima. In July consumers still expected a subdued development in prices over the next twelve months (+18 points), although less pronouncedly than in April (+6 Points).There was no significant change in the assessment of price trends over the last twelve months (-3 in April, -5 in July).
Consumers are markedly more negative in their assessment of the development of the economy over the past twelve months (-22 points in April, -36 points in July) as well as of the latest development in the financial situation of domestic households (-4 points in April, -12 points in July) and they are also less positive about job security – although not to a significant extent (-70 in April, -76 in July). The assessment of the timing for major purchases remained favourable; the value of the corresponding sub-index was higher than the long-term average but slightly lower than in April (+15 in April, +6 in July). There was no significant change in consumers’ assessment of their savings possibilities (+45 in April, +40 in July).
*Assessment of the future economic prospects, the future development of unemployment, the anticipated development of the financial situation of domestic households, the savings possibilities over the next twelve months.
**In January, April, July and October, approximately 1,200 households selected at random are questioned at the request of the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) with regard to their personal assessment of the economic situation, their own financial situation, price trends, job security, etc. The survey is conducted by the market research institute DemoScope.
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