The economic impact of a discontinuation of the Bilateral Agreements I was examined by two research institutes, Ecoplan and BAK Economics, on behalf of SECO. The studies showed that a discontinuation of the first package would lead to a significant slowdown in economic growth in Switzerland. They also indicated that other setbacks, including a loss of legal certainty and a decline in Switzerland’s appeal as a business location, were to be expected.
On behalf of SECO, Ecoplan has updated its 2015 study in 2025. Compared to the first Ecoplan study (2015), the update takes into account Brexit, changes in trade flows and new population scenarios, and adjusts the model simulation for the period 2028 to 2045. The study simulates the discontinuation of the Bilateral Agreements I prior to their update by the Switzerland–EU package. Ecoplan's updated model calculations on the previous Bilateral Agreements I confirm the high value of Bilateral Agreements I and of Switzerland's association with EU research and innovation programmes for the Swiss economy. According to the model calculations, if the Bilateral Agreements I were to be discontinued and Switzerland's participation in EU research and innovation programmes were to be downgraded to the status of a non-associated third country, GDP in 2045 would be 4.90% lower than with functioning agreements and the association.
The studies are in line with existing literature on Bilateral Agreements I and underscore that the discontinuation of Bilateral Agreements I would result in significant changes to the economic framework and have a negative impact on the Swiss economy.
