Potential growth

Potential growth and output gap are unobservable quantities that have to be estimated. Various methods can be used for this purpose. SECO publishes two estimates for the Swiss economy.

The potential and output gap in the coming years are calculated according to the European Commission method: Potential and Gap EC Method (XLSX, 28 kB, 18.03.2025). Input data for the calculation: Inputs EC Method (XLSX, 47 kB, 18.03.2025).

In sample, the potential and output gap are calculated on quarterly frequency. For this purpose, the results of different methods are aggregated: Potential Gap in Sample (XLSX, 39 kB, 27.02.2025), machine readable data: ogupo.csv (CSV, 24 kB, 27.02.2025)

Documents

Potential output estimates for the Swiss economy: Model selection and sensitivity analysis (PDF, 1 MB, 20.02.2024)Study in English with German, French and Italian summary

Schätzung der Produktionslücke im 1. Quartal 2020: Auswirkungen der gesundheitspolitischen Massnahmen zur Eindämmung von COVID-19 (in German only) (PDF, 170 kB, 03.06.2020)

Methodology (in German only) (PDF, 611 kB, 11.03.2021)

Estimating a Quarterly Potential Output Series for Switzerland (PDF, 492 kB, 13.02.2020)Grundlagen für die Wirtschaftspolitik Nr. 8
Study in English with German, French and Italian summary

Estimate and forecast of potential output based on a production function – theory and application to Switzerland (PDF, 1 MB, 13.02.2020)Grundlagen für die Wirtschaftspolitik Nr. 9
Study in German with French, Italian and English summary

Univariate and multivariate filters for estimating potential output – theory and application to Switzerland (PDF, 1 MB, 13.02.2020)Grundlagen für die Wirtschaftspolitik Nr. 10
Study in German with French, Italian and English summary

Methods of estimating potential output: production function or filter methods? A comparative assessment in application to Switzerland (PDF, 1 MB, 13.02.2020)Grundlagen für die Wirtschaftspolitik Nr. 11
Study in German with French, Italian and English summary

Estimating a Quarterly Potential Output Series for Switzerland (PDF, 594 kB, 13.02.2020)Grundlagen für die Wirtschaftspolitik Nr. 12
Study in English with German, French and Italian summary

Agenda

Provisional publication schedule

Monday, 16 June 2025, 9:00

Thursday, 16 October 2025, 9:00

Monday, 15 December 2025, 9:00

Last modification 17.03.2025