Potential growth

SECO publishes periodically quarterly time series for potential output and output gap of the Swiss economy. Both measures are of importance for detecting the position of the economy in the business cycle. Apart, they are key indicators for short-term and medium-run forecasts of main figures for economic development. They are also the cornerstone for the construction of long-term scenarios for Swiss GDP.

Output gap, in % from potential

Potential growth and output gap (XLS, 106 kB, 12.10.2020)

Documents

Schätzung der Produktionslücke im 1. Quartal 2020: Auswirkungen der gesundheitspolitischen Massnahmen zur Eindämmung von COVID-19 (in German only) (PDF, 170 kB, 03.06.2020)

Methodology (in German only) (PDF, 367 kB, 12.12.2019)

Estimating a Quarterly Potential Output Series for Switzerland (PDF, 492 kB, 13.02.2020)Grundlagen für die Wirtschaftspolitik Nr. 8
Study in English with German, French and Italian summary

Estimate and forecast of potential output based on a production function – theory and application to Switzerland (PDF, 1 MB, 13.02.2020)Grundlagen für die Wirtschaftspolitik Nr. 9
Study in German with French, Italian and English summary

Univariate and multivariate filters for estimating potential output – theory and application to Switzerland (PDF, 1 MB, 13.02.2020)Grundlagen für die Wirtschaftspolitik Nr. 10
Study in German with French, Italian and English summary

Methods of estimating potential output: production function or filter methods? A comparative assessment in application to Switzerland (PDF, 1 MB, 13.02.2020)Grundlagen für die Wirtschaftspolitik Nr. 11
Study in German with French, Italian and English summary

Estimating a Quarterly Potential Output Series for Switzerland (PDF, 594 kB, 13.02.2020)Grundlagen für die Wirtschaftspolitik Nr. 12
Study in English with German, French and Italian summary

Agenda

• 01.12.2020 Update

Last modification 09.10.2020