Potential growth

Potential growth and output gap are unobservable quantities that have to be estimated. Various methods can be used for this purpose. SECO publishes two estimates for the Swiss economy.

The potential and output gap in the coming years are calculated according to the European Commission method: Potential and Gap EC Method (XLSX, 28 kB, 19.03.2024). Input data for the calculation: Inputs EC Method (XLSX, 47 kB, 19.03.2024).

In sample, the potential and output gap are calculated on quarterly frequency. For this purpose, the results of different methods are aggregated: Potential Gap in Sample (XLSX, 39 kB, 19.03.2024), machine readable data: ogupo.csv (CSV, 24 kB, 19.03.2024)

Documents

Estimating a Quarterly Potential Output Series for Switzerland (PDF, 492 kB, 13.02.2020)Grundlagen für die Wirtschaftspolitik Nr. 8
Study in English with German, French and Italian summary

Estimate and forecast of potential output based on a production function – theory and application to Switzerland (PDF, 1 MB, 13.02.2020)Grundlagen für die Wirtschaftspolitik Nr. 9
Study in German with French, Italian and English summary

Univariate and multivariate filters for estimating potential output – theory and application to Switzerland (PDF, 1 MB, 13.02.2020)Grundlagen für die Wirtschaftspolitik Nr. 10
Study in German with French, Italian and English summary

Estimating a Quarterly Potential Output Series for Switzerland (PDF, 594 kB, 13.02.2020)Grundlagen für die Wirtschaftspolitik Nr. 12
Study in English with German, French and Italian summary

Agenda

Provisional publication schedule

Monday, 17 June 2024, 9:00

Thursday, 19 September 2024, 9:00

Tuesday, 17 December 2024, 9:00

Last modification 19.03.2024

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Contact

State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO

Economic Policy Directorate
Short Term Economic Analyses

Felicitas Kemeny
Holzikofenweg 36
CH-3003 Bern

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https://www.seco.admin.ch/content/seco/en/home/wirtschaftslage---wirtschaftspolitik/Wirtschaftslage/potenzialwachstum.html