SECO publishes periodically quarterly time series for potential output and output gap of the Swiss economy. Both measures are of importance for detecting the position of the economy in the business cycle. Apart, they are key indicators for short-term and medium-run forecasts of main figures for economic development. They are also the cornerstone for the construction of long-term scenarios for Swiss GDP.
Output gap, in % from potential

Documents
Estimating a Quarterly Potential Output Series for Switzerland (PDF, 492 kB, 13.02.2020)Grundlagen für die Wirtschaftspolitik Nr. 8
Study in English with German, French and Italian summary
Estimate and forecast of potential output based on a production function – theory and application to Switzerland (PDF, 1 MB, 13.02.2020)Grundlagen für die Wirtschaftspolitik Nr. 9
Study in German with French, Italian and English summary
Univariate and multivariate filters for estimating potential output – theory and application to Switzerland (PDF, 1 MB, 13.02.2020)Grundlagen für die Wirtschaftspolitik Nr. 10
Study in German with French, Italian and English summary
Methods of estimating potential output: production function or filter methods? A comparative assessment in application to Switzerland (PDF, 1 MB, 13.02.2020)Grundlagen für die Wirtschaftspolitik Nr. 11
Study in German with French, Italian and English summary
Estimating a Quarterly Potential Output Series for Switzerland (PDF, 594 kB, 13.02.2020)Grundlagen für die Wirtschaftspolitik Nr. 12
Study in English with German, French and Italian summary
Agenda
Provisional publication schedule
Thursday, 11 March 2021, 9:00
Last modification 14.12.2020
Contact
State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO
Economic Policy Directorate
Short Term Economic Analyses
Ronald Indergand
Holzikofenweg 36
CH-3003 Bern