Potential growth and output gap are unobservable quantities that have to be estimated. Various methods can be used for this purpose. SECO publishes two estimates for the Swiss economy.
The potential and output gap in the coming years are calculated according to the European Commission method: Potential and Gap EC Method (XLS, 92 kB, 20.09.2023). Input data for the calculation: Inputs EC Method (XLS, 93 kB, 20.09.2023).
In sample, the potential and output gap are calculated on quarterly frequency. For this purpose, the results of different methods are aggregated: Potential Gap in Sample (XLSX, 39 kB, 20.09.2023), machine readable data: ogupo.csv (CSV, 24 kB, 20.09.2023)