Economic forecasts

Economic forecast: US tariffs weigh on Swiss industry, uncertainty remains elevated

Higher US tariffs have further clouded the outlook for the Swiss economy. Based on recently revised GDP data, the Expert Group on Business Cycles projects significantly below-average economic growth of 1.3% in 2025, slowing further to 0.9% in 2026. This forecast reflects expectations of a weak second half of 2025 and is based on the technical assumption that international tariffs will remain at current levels.

Press releases

16.10.2025
Economic forecast: US tariffs weigh on Swiss industry, uncertainty remains elevated

Press release and tables (PDF, 213 kB, 16.10.2025)

GDP forecast, details (XLSX, 119 kB, 16.10.2025)

Economic forecasts (in German) (PDF, 374 kB, 16.10.2025)

Archive

Economic Scenario August 2025 (in German) (PDF, 180 kB, 28.08.2025)

16.06.2025
Economic forecast: weaker growth expected, uncertainty remains high

18.03.2025

Economic forecast: below-average growth, high degree of uncertainty

17.12.2024

Economic forecast: Outlook deteriorates marginally amid high uncertainty

19.09.2024

Economic forecast: Below-average growth, inflation lower than previously expected

17.06.2024

Economic forecast largely unchanged: Swiss growth in 2024 to be below average

19.03.2024

Forecast unchanged: Swiss economic growth below average in 2024

13.12.2023

Forecast: Economic growth set to rise in 2025

20.09.2023

Economic forecast: Swiss economic growth significantly below average in 2023 and 2024

15.06.2023

Economic forecast confirmed: Swiss economic growth significantly below average in 2023

16.03.2023

Economic forecast: Swiss economic growth to be significantly below average in 2023

13.12.2022

Forecast: economic slowdown expected

20.09.2022

Economic forecast: marked slowdown on the horizon

15.06.2022

Economic forecast: recovery continues at a slower pace

14.03.2022

Economic forecast: Ukraine conflict dampens recovery

09.12.2021

Economic forecast: recovery delayed

16.09.2021

Economic forecast: Recovery continues but temporarily loses some momentum

15.06.2021

Economic forecast: strong recovery following the easing of coronavirus measures

11.03.2021

Forecast: rapid recovery following the gradual easing of coronavirus measures

15.12.2020

Forecast: second coronavirus wave interrupts economic recovery

12.10.2020

Forecast: 2020 economic slump less serious than feared

10.09.2020

Swiss economy performing better than expected

16.06.2020

Forecast: Swiss economy in the coronavirus crisis

23.04.2020

GDP set for sharpest fall in decades

19.03.2020

Coronavirus shrinking the economy

12.12.2019

Economy expected to brighten only in 2021

17.09.2019

The outlook has become gloomier

13.06.2019

Weaker global economy also slows Swiss economy

14.03.2019

Weaker global economy slows exports

18.12.2018

Swiss economy weakens

19.09.2018

Swiss economy booming, global economic risks increasing

19.06.2018

Upswing unhindered despite risks

20.03.2018

Economy continues dynamic recovery

19.12.2017

Economic recovery gains momentum

21.09.2017

Swiss economy resumes stronger growth

20.06.2017

Positive economic outlook continues despite tentative recovery to date

21.03.2017

Switzerland’s economic prospects remain positive

15.12.2016

Economic recovery continues in Switzerland

19.09.2016

Despite continued risks, the Swiss economy remains on course for recovery

16.06.2016

Modest GDP growth expected for Switzerland

17.03.2016

Slow economic recovery in 2016 and 2017

17.12.2015

Swiss economy gains momentum – but slowly

17.09.2015

Below-average growth also expected for 2016

16.06.2015

Painful adaptation of the economy to the strong Swiss franc

19.03.2015

The revaluation of the Swiss franc reduces GDP growth prospects for 2015 and 2016

05.02.2015

Economic forecasts 2015 and 2016 from the Federal Government’s Expert Group: Consequences of the higher exchange rate for the economy

18.12.2014

Relatively favourable economic prospects in a risky environment

16.10.2014

Slightly lower growth forecasts, with increased downside risks

17.06.2014

Economic prospects remain positive despite delay in recovery of exports

18.03.2014

Growth is expected to slightly accelerate and should feed through into lower unemployment

19.12.2013

Economic upturn also extending to the export industry - prospects of lower unemployment

19.09.2013

Brighter economic outlook

11.06.2013

Swiss economy: between a rising domestic demand and subdued exports

18.03.2013

Economic confidence slowly returns – more vigorous growth not before 2014

13.12.2012

Economic outlook moderately positive

18.09.2012

Slowdown in economic growth

12.06.2012

Swiss economy performing well in a difficult and risky environment - outlook subject to significant risks

Agenda

Provisional publication schedule 

Winter 2025
Monday, 15 December 2025, 9:00

 

Last modification 16.10.2025